Random Thoughts Roundup

1. My 401(k) is substantially in cash and investment grade bonds. That's what I think of the stock market for the next couple of years. I think we are in for a prolonged slump, particularly on Wall Street and real estate. The stimulus bill will be useless. Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be ugly.

2. The impact of this economic downturn will have an incredibly profound impact on the observant Jewish community. There are countless numbers of people who may never make as much money annually as they did in 2006. Or, if they are lucky, it may take them years to get back to making as much. It will force us all to change how we look at things, how we do things and on our expectations. Think Pesach, summer camp, school tuition, the kollel system, etc.

3. Many of these changes will be for the good, albeit painful. Things will have to be rationalized, schools and other charitable organizations are going to have to be much more careful with money, and people may actually begin to behave in a more tzniusdik way. Also, aliyah will increase substantially. If you are unemployed, you might as well look for work in Israel; it's a lot less painful if you don't have to pay tuition.