MOChassid

The rambling thoughts of a Modern Orthodox Chassid (whatever that means). Contact me at emansouth @ aol.com

Monday, August 18, 2008

Fantasy Preview

Instead of Melavah Malkah this past Motsai Shabbos, I feasted on our fantasy football draft.

(Our commissioner, The Great Joe Schick decided to hold the draft especially early, ostensibly to accommodate one of the player's schedules. The real reason was to thwart the annual advantage I have from using the services of my firm's analyst to prepare my drafting strategy. My analyst's own draft is not until just before the regular season starts so he wasn't nearly as prepared as he might have been later).

In any event, I think the draft went ok. My offense is pretty solid (but so is everyone else's) and I think my overall defense is the best in the league.

According to my charts (and I use the term "my" very loosely), I got the third ranked running back, the third ranked quarterback, the third ranked wide receiver, and the first or second ranked tight end. I also got two of the top three linebackers, the third ranked defensive end, the top ranked defensive back and the top ranked kicker. I also have a good backup quarterback (whom I apparently rated much higher than others did) and a couple of players who I got very late in the draft (including Marvin Harrison and Aaron Rodgers) who could be much better than expected/.

I am potentially weak at second running back position (although one of my three other running backs could be major surprises). I made the decision to go after a top ranked receiver and tight end and top ranked defensive players rather than a higher ranked running back because (i) my numbers showed a big difference between the top three in those categories and everyone else, and (ii) I didn't think others in the draft would rate the running backs I did pick as highly as I did (which turned out to be the case).

In any event, barring injuries to top players, it should be an extremely competitive season. I look forward to defending my championship.

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11 Comments:

  • At 12:07 PM, Blogger Ezzie said…

    According to my charts (and I use the term "my" very loosely)

    LOL. :)

    Wait, so who'd you get?!

     
  • At 2:16 PM, Blogger MoChassid said…

    Carson Palmer (QB), Frank Gore (RB), Andre Johnson (WR), Kellen Winslow (TE), David Harris (LB), Demeco Ryans (LB), Mario Williams (DL), Roman Harper (DB), Nick Folk (K), Torry Holt (WR), Thomas Jones (RB), Selvin Young (RB), Marvin Harrison (WR), Owen Daniels (TE), David Garrard (QB), Aaron Rodgers (QB), Chris Johnson (RB), Justin Smith (DL), Oshiomogho Atogwe (DB), Kyle Vanden Bosch (DL), Kirk Morrison (LB)

     
  • At 3:56 PM, OpenID noyam said…

    I liked your draft. You took Daniels one pick before me, and I was targeting him. It especially caught me by surprise b/c you already had Winslow, I thought for sure you would go somewhere else before a second TE.

    And I like Garrard. Don't let naysayers talk you out of him. In a league that rewards completion percentage and badly penalized INTs, a guy with a 64% competion rate and an 18/3 TD/INT ratio last year in 12 games has got serious value.

     
  • At 3:59 PM, OpenID noyam said…

    third ranked quarterback

    btw, that's generous ranking Carson Palmer ahead of Brees and Romo (presumably behind Brady and Manning?).

     
  • At 4:40 PM, Blogger Joe Schick said…

    I thought RBs were undervalued in our draft.

     
  • At 4:51 PM, Blogger MoChassid said…

    Noyam

    I had Daniels highly ranked at TE and couldn't resist. Palmer and Romo were virtually tied in my rankings, quite a few points ahead of Brees (and way ahead of the next best qbs).

     
  • At 8:16 PM, OpenID noyam said…

    Joe -

    Because of the position limits (4) and only 8 teams, there was a lot of depth to be had at RB, perhaps leading to the focus on other positions. That was certainly part of what pushed me to take Manning at 1.04. And because of the dropoff at QB that MoC mentioned (and the increase in QB value in this league from completion points, etc.)

    MoC - I had him highly rated to, but was expecting him to fall based on reading some mock drafts. Alas, I was one pick off.

    And hey, variance in cheat sheet and projection data is what makes this fun. If we were all drafting off the same sheet with the same methodology, it would be boring.

    I just feel badly for my co-owner, for whom I was online draft proxy (he was on the phone discussing picks), that my computer froze up a couple of times, leading to two auto-picks. That was no fun.

     
  • At 9:45 PM, Blogger MoChassid said…

    noyam

    I had auto picks in my first year. It was unbelievably annoying.

     
  • At 10:13 PM, Blogger Joe Schick said…

    My computer froze too and I missed three picks - which was most annoying since as league manager I have access to the "pause" icon.

    In my experience, RBs become the most scarce commodity by mid-season. I felt fortunate to get Portis and Bush at #24 and #25 - even if by then all of the good QBs were gone.

     
  • At 9:34 AM, Blogger MoChassid said…

    Bush is the kind of RB that is more valuable in this league because of the points given for receptions, etc. I agree that they were excellent pickups.

     
  • At 9:55 AM, Blogger Ezzie said…

    Without knowing the scoring, that sounds like a great team.

    Winslow should have slightly less yards and a couple more TDs this year - he's a great player. Williams and Ryans are great picks, partly because their offense moves fast, giving them more opportunities for tackles and other stats each game, and when they get into a shootout, more sacks. Gore will do better this year than last.

    Your biggest issue will actually be Palmer. Not only is the Bengals' team not as good overall, but they have one of the roughest schedules in football (behind the Browns and Steelers). 2 games each against the Browns, Steelers, and Ravens (Browns D is much improved), and the NFC East, AFC South, and two others. There are maybe two easy games. If there's a team in your league that doesn't read this, I'd trade him and someone else for a Brees, Anderson, or similar and up the other position.

     

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