Fantasy Fluke

Despite my best efforts to lose this past week (playing Eli Manning (4 points) and benching Tony Romo (34 points), etc.), it looks like I'm going to win, thereby raising my record to 4-3.

The truth is my team is mediocre at best and I've stunk, over-dealing and making the wrong moves at almost every turn. The truth is, I'm very lucky to be 4-3. This week, for the second time this season, I would have lost to EVERY OTHER TEAM but the one I played.

Maybe I could go work for the Oakland Raiders.

Fantasy Football: The Definition of Mediocre

After winning last year's championship, I finished this season appropriately, with a win that left me with a mediocre record of 8-9, my worst year yet.

Congratulations to The Great Joe Schick who had a good draft save for horrible quarterbacks but saved his season by picking up Kurt Warner from the scrap heap. Warner was one of the best players in this year's FFL.

My season went sideways on draft day, mainly because my two first picks, Frank Gore and Carson Palmer, ended up virtually useless. My pick at tight end, Kellen Winslow, was also a disaster. Finally, my first pick on defense, David Harris of the Jets (who was one of the top FFL defensive players last year) missed half the season and stunk in those games that he did play. David Garrard, my backup at QB, was a dud. While I was saved at QB by my backup to my backup, Aaron Rodgers, who had a reasonably srong year, I never did well at running back, relying on Gore, the inconsistent Thomas Jones and Chris Johnson (who was ok). My only really excellent choice was Andre Johnson who was a monster at wide receiver.

My approach to the draft was also bad; I will not make the same mistakes next year. Also, my analyst, who ranks the players for me before the draft, had a sub-par year (he, too, did not do well this year after winning his league championship for the past three years). Finally, I didn't pay enough attention to my team after the draft because of all the craziness I was dealing with at work.

So, hats off to Joe, who is keeping the championship trophy warm, until I reclaim it next year.

Strange Days Indeed...

Most Peculiar Moma.

1. Yesterday, I rode in the Golden Apple century bike ride starting in Goldens Bridge, New York (Westchester). I was originally planning to do 75 miles (the maximum was 125). In the middle of the ride I decided I wanted to finish sooner and switched after a rest stop to the 50 mile route. (That would have meant a total of 56 miles).

Somehow, I got lost towards the end of the route. I found myself back on the 75 mile route. At the end of the day, my mileage was 78 miles. Sheesh.

2. In the car on the way home, I fielded a call from one of my board members regarding a certain investment bank that has been making the news. I spent a good portion of Sunday afternoon and evening on conference calls.

3. During the day, I got an email from The Great Joe Schick asking me whether I was purposely losing my Fantasy Football game or whether I was just oblivious to the fact that the Houston-Baltimore game had been postponed (Three of my starters are from Houston). Truthfully, I did hear that in passing on motsai Shabbos but I didn't give it any thought because (i) I just assumed (incorrectly) that the scoring for the week would be deferred until that game was actually played, and (ii) I was busy preparing for the next morning's bike ride (You have no idea what my pre-ride hachanos are; one day I will post about them). In any event, since I got back from my ride way too late and I was engaged in some "issues" at work, I didn't do anything and will lose this week in a match that I might have had a shot at winning.

4. Today was one of the craziest days in my professional career. It's ugly out there.

Fantasy Roundup, Week One: Better to Be Lucky Than Good

I managed to win my first fantasy football match against Akiva despite my quarterback scoring negative 1.5 points, my second receiver scoring 1 point and my kicker scoring 0 points. I remain in first place (where I belong) and have now won almost a million games in a row.

How did I do this?

Awesome defense but, mostly, luck.

I got decent output from the rest of my offense, with my top wide receiver (whom my guru predicts will be the top wide receiver in ff this year) putting in a particularly solid game and my two RBs coming through. (My late pick of Thomas Jones may end up saving my season).

My defense was monstrous, more than making up for my weak offense.

But, at the end of the day, it came down to luck. Akiva's QB, Tom Brady (the number 1 pick of the draft) suffered a season-ending injury in the first quarter and scored only 5.5 points. Had he played a full game, the match might have been extremely tight.

My "takeaways": Tory Holt is going to be a bust. His team, and quarterback, look like they stink. I will replace him next week with Marvin harrison (which I should have done this week but was too busy riding my bike). I am also worried about Palmer and the Bengals but I will give that some time to play out.

Fantasy Preview

Instead of Melavah Malkah this past Motsai Shabbos, I feasted on our fantasy football draft.

(Our commissioner, The Great Joe Schick decided to hold the draft especially early, ostensibly to accommodate one of the player's schedules. The real reason was to thwart the annual advantage I have from using the services of my firm's analyst to prepare my drafting strategy. My analyst's own draft is not until just before the regular season starts so he wasn't nearly as prepared as he might have been later).

In any event, I think the draft went ok. My offense is pretty solid (but so is everyone else's) and I think my overall defense is the best in the league.

According to my charts (and I use the term "my" very loosely), I got the third ranked running back, the third ranked quarterback, the third ranked wide receiver, and the first or second ranked tight end. I also got two of the top three linebackers, the third ranked defensive end, the top ranked defensive back and the top ranked kicker. I also have a good backup quarterback (whom I apparently rated much higher than others did) and a couple of players who I got very late in the draft (including Marvin Harrison and Aaron Rodgers) who could be much better than expected/.

I am potentially weak at second running back position (although one of my three other running backs could be major surprises). I made the decision to go after a top ranked receiver and tight end and top ranked defensive players rather than a higher ranked running back because (i) my numbers showed a big difference between the top three in those categories and everyone else, and (ii) I didn't think others in the draft would rate the running backs I did pick as highly as I did (which turned out to be the case).

In any event, barring injuries to top players, it should be an extremely competitive season. I look forward to defending my championship.

Victory

I am pleased to report that with a hard-fought victory against the Great Joe Schick, founder and commissioner of the Zionist Conspiracy Fantasy Football League (ZCFFL), I fended off Team Akiva and retained sole possession of first place, thereby clinching the title.

A few points about this week. To a large extent, week 17 is a crap shoot. It is difficult to determine which playoff teams will rest their best players (and which teams that are out of the playoffs will rest their good, but banged up, players). Indeed, two of the teams in the league fell asleep at the switch and started players in key positions who were inactive. (Akiva had a much easier time because his opponent started an inactive player at running back, arguably the most important position.)

In my particular case, a key decision surrounded Reggie Wayne, clearly my season's MVP. The Colts are known for resting players when the team is locked. I decided to bench Wayne and play Brandon Marshall of Denver whom I had picked up off waivers earlier in the year and had been playing extremely well of late. Well, Wayne had 12 catches in the first half and scored 17 fantasy points but, I believe, sat the entire second half. Luckily for me, Marshall had a monster game and scored 31 points. I also sat Gibril Wilson, a defensive back from the Giants who has been banged up, thinking that the Giants would sensibly realize that their game against the Patriots was, indeed, meaningless. Instead, the dopey Giants played it like it was their Super Bowl and Wilson had a strong game sitting on my bench.

At the end of the day, enough of my picks worked and I held off Joe who also had a strong game.

(It is worth considering whether to end the season after the 16th week, as many fantasy leagues do.)

So, to what do I owe my victory?

1. My head of analytics who explained the concept of drafting for relative value and gave me a draft sheet to follow.

2. Incredibly good luck. I did not have one significant injury to any key offensive player all year.

3. Monster wide receivers. This is also somewhat lucky. I picked two excellent "number two" receivers (Wayne and Houshmanzadeh) who turned into number one receivers because of, respectively, an injury to Marvin Harrison and a head case in Chad Johnson. Wayne was a force and Houshmanzadeh was at the top of the league in receptions all year.

4. Depth. I had four good running backs, three good wide receivers and two good tight ends. (I only had one good quarterback and he stayed healthy).

5. Attention to detail. Unlike last year, I stayed awake and followed the bye weeks, the injuries and, occasionally, even the match ups. This despite extensive travelling during the season. Twice, I had to make adjustments to my team from overseas.

6. Mid-season pickups and drops. I was not afraid to drop under performers. Even big names like Adam Viniatari, the Colts great kicker who was killing me in the second half of the year (The Colts were overwhelmingly scoring touchdowns rather than attempting field goals and, on those few occasions when they did attempt kicks, Viniateri missed.). I also picked up Mario Williams who had big games for me in the last few weeks, and Brandon Marshall who was huge in week 17.

All in all, the season was a lot of fun and I'd love to do it again next year (even if I don't get the first pick in the draft).

Fantasy Roundup: Everything Goes Right

Is it dumb luck?

Virtually every personnel move that I made with Team MoC paid dividends yesterday. I scored 184 points even with a terrible performance by Carson Palmer (in retrospect, perhaps I should have played Kitna; Pittsburgh's defense is the best in the league).

I dropped Robert Mathis (2 points) who hasn't done anything at DL and picked up Mario Williams off the scrap heap. He scored 14.5.

I made a game-time decision to go with Adrian Peterson (instead of Willis McGahee who plays against New England tonight) and he rewarded me with 21 points.

I selected DeMeco Ryans (14) and Patrick Willis (18) over Vrabel (tonight) and Harrison (6).

I put Chris Cooley (15) back in the starting lineup at TE over Owen Daniels (7).

Finally, I noticed on Sunday morning that Gibril Wilson had been put on the injured list and replaced him with Nick Harper (8). (This is the type of move I would not have made at the beginning of last year; I never used to check my team on Sunday mornings).

And, thankfully, I finally got the kind of game I had been expecting from LaDanian T all year (30) and a big game from Reggie Wayne (27).

I realize that I have fallen asleep with my placekicker, the ancient Adam Vinetari, who has averaged about -2 over the last three games. I may have to dredge up another kicker.

So, unless Tom Brady scores about 80 points tonight, I will remain tied for first place with only four weeks to go.

Fantasy Update: MoC Does First Place

Having squeaked out a 2.5 point win over The Great Joe Schick, (who, fed up with the dismal play of Frank Gore, benched him and his 40 fantasy points, thereby handing me the victory), coupled with a shocking loss by Team Akiva to the fantasy equivalent of the Miami Dolphins, I am now in first place with a 9-3 record.

This victory was particularly sweet because it was payback for my first defeat of the season, by 4 points, to Joe.

This week is a big matchup with third place Lou the Toe. The big question: Do I play Adrian Peterson? Probably not. (And he will probably gain 250 yards).

Team MoC Rolls On

My fantasy football team continues to roll. I am 6-1 with a big test coming up against the 5-2 Team Lou the Toe. I had no business winning this week what with LT on a bye and an underperforming Cincinnati squad (Palmer and TJH). I will take the wins where I can get them.

My biggest challenge will be remembering to adjust my squad next week after my bike ride.

Fantasyland

Despite the fact that my starting quarterback and top wide receiver, together averaging 45 points per game, had byes, and despite the fact that my replacement QB and wide receiver stunk up the joint (4.5 points together when they had been averaging about 30 points together), I managed to crush the previously unbeaten Team Akiva to take first place with a 4-1 record. I was helped by an uncharacteristically good points day from Kerry Rhodes who had 9 tackles.

Going into Monday night I had a strong lead. Only a monumental game from Tony Romo could have cost me the win. I went to sleep after the first half of the Dallas-Buffalo game knowing that the game was in the bag after Romo threw three interceptions. Sure enough, kach havah.

I have been extremely lucky so far in that my team has so far been entirely injury free. (I knew it was a good move hiring a world class trainer). I have also been fortunate to win even though LT is playing very pedestrian football so far. (He did cost me my one loss by scoring only 9 points; I lost that game by 5).

In a couple of weeks I go on a two week road trip where I will have very limited access to computers. I hope I can sustain the momentum during that time.

Fantasy Update

It isn't even Friday yet and I am well on my way to victory in the first week of Fantasy Football, crushing the hapless Elster 43-1 after last night's name. It is true that I've used up one receiver (23 points), one defensive end (14) and my kicker (6) to his one defensive end (1), but I still have LT and Carson Palmer in reserve.

Preparing For the Draft

There are two ways to prepare for the upcoming NFL Fantasy draft being run by my blogging buddy Joe Schick. One is to read all kinds of football magazines, scan the websites, listen to the radio, etc. The other is to go next door to my head of analytics, give him the scoring settings for our league and have him develop a "cheat sheet" with all kinds of valuations. Assuming I don't screw up the actual mechanics of the draft (not a small thing and something I did not avoid last year), I should come out with a fairly good team.

The two things my guy was able to do for me that I would not otherwise have been able to do are, first, value players based on our unique scoring system. It's easy to find player rankings on the web but not one that values players based on our system. Second, he explained the concept of relative value (which Joe put into use last year when he picked Payton Manning very early in the draft rather than a running back). I will share some of my guy's specific ha'arahs after the draft but his approach is quite interesting.

Our draft is motsai Shabbos. What could be better than a combination of melaveh malkah and fantasy football?

Fantasy Finale

Since starting the fantasy football season 1 - 6, mired in last place, I made a valiant run and played the last 10 games to a record of 8 - 2, including a finishing winning streak of 5 games. My 9 - 8 record landed me in third place (although I was only 50 total points behind 12 - 5 Joe, and almost 200 points ahead of the second place finisher, Jetsphan).

For someone who knows very little about football, I can't complain. With some help from Joe, I figured out that you don't really need to know much. You just need to follow the free agents, see who is hot, figure out who is not, and look at matchups.

That, and draft LaDamian Tomlinson.

On the real football front, I was disappointed that both the Giants and Jets won because for the first time in weeks, sportstalk radio is missing the suicidal callers who live and die with the fortunes of the Jets and Giants. It is so much more entertaining listening to the callers who are feeling agmas nefesh and listening to their ridiculous solutions. ("The Giants should trade Eli Manning for Tom Brady").

No doubt, next week we will be back to normal with the Giants getting crushed by Philadelphia. (Even if the Jets lose, most Jets fans are very satisfied with what has been a very good and unexpected year).

Sports Friday on Sunday

1. After starting the Fantasy football season 1 - 6, I have finally climbed all the way back to .500 with a crushing victory over Team Elster. (It is not official until after tomorrow's games but I am up by 60 points and the margin is actually likely to increase.) Elster made the terrible mistake of putting many of his fantasy eggs in one basket and, unfortunately for him, the basket was the Giants. He also ran into terrible luck with a number of other premium players.

So, although my score is only a modest 106 (with Tony Romo yet to play) this game is in the bag. So, I won with LT finally coming down to Earth with only 20 points.

If Joe can come back tomorrow (a pretty likely scenario) I will find myself in third place with a shot at second next week (which is where I belong since I have 100 more points than the third highest scoring player (Joe is first by over 50)).

2. Is there a more horrid team than the Giants? Can you believe they will make the playoffs with a win next week? Coughlin must go.

3. What's up with the Rangers?

4. Big high school hockey game on Tuesday. Results to follow.

Random Fantasies: Beyond Bad Luck

Despite scoring 160 points last week, I lost to Joe Schick. He scored 176 points. Once again, I would have beaten every other player in the league.

My luck this year is beyond bad. In fact, if my buddy Ben Chorin is reading this I would ask him to explain how statistically improbable it is that I am tied for last place, with a 4 - 8 record despite:

* Having the second highest aggregate point total (1695; 107 points higher than the second place player (who is 8 - 4). I have 185 points more than the other team that shares my lousy record.

* My average score, about 141, would have won 22 of the 36 games played so far (61%). Instead, I have won only 33% of my games.

The reason for my lousy record is that, incredibly, teams have scored an aggregate of 1755 points against me. That's 124, or more than 10 per game, more than the next player and 270 points more (over 20 per game!) than the second place team.

In any event, I plow on, knowing that I am doomed. The question for this week is do I play Tony Romo against the dreadful Giants or do I play Tom Brady against the even more dreadful Lions?

Random Fantasy Update

I crushed Elster by almost 50 points last week. But, to show you how random Fantasy Football is, Elster would have beaten every other team in our league by at least 10 points!

As I said, this has little to do with me; my first choice, LaDamlian Tomlinson, scored 4 touchdowns for the second straight week and has 19 in his last 6 games; perhaps the greatest fantasy football run in history. Go, LDT!

Random Fantasies

I was convinced to join an NFL Fantasy league this year by the prominent Jblogger and crazy Jets fan, Joe Schick.

I was somewhat reluctant since I know almost nothing about the current NFL. Nevertheless, being a good sport, I became the sixth and final member of the league.

I prepared for the draft by talking to one of my colleagues, the data guy at my firm, who basically has no life and takes this stuff very seriously. He gave me a "cheat sheet" to follow with all the players ranked, by position. I lucked out by getting the first pick and, at dataguy's recommendation, picked LaDamlian Tomlinson. The draft went relatively well for a few more rounds until something went wrong and the computer started picking for me automatically.

I ended up with a fairly good offense and a fairly bad defense (or so I've been told). I promptly made things worse by dropping good players instead of benching them (to deal with bye weeks).

Joe sportingly tried to help and, in fact, did give me some good advice.

Predictably, my record dropped to 1 - 6 after seven weeks, owing to a combination of bad luck (I lost one week by 1 point and another because I played the guy with the highest total of the week), and and am ha'aratzus.

Then, things started to change. And, it had nothing to do with any newfound genious on my part. It had to do, mainly, with LaDamlian Tomlinson. He started going berserk, scoring about three touchdowns each week for the last six weeks. So, I now find myself at 4 - 7 after winning three out of four.

Totally random.