Random Fantasies: Beyond Bad Luck
Despite scoring 160 points last week, I lost to Joe Schick. He scored 176 points. Once again, I would have beaten every other player in the league.
My luck this year is beyond bad. In fact, if my buddy Ben Chorin is reading this I would ask him to explain how statistically improbable it is that I am tied for last place, with a 4 - 8 record despite:
* Having the second highest aggregate point total (1695; 107 points higher than the second place player (who is 8 - 4). I have 185 points more than the other team that shares my lousy record.
* My average score, about 141, would have won 22 of the 36 games played so far (61%). Instead, I have won only 33% of my games.
The reason for my lousy record is that, incredibly, teams have scored an aggregate of 1755 points against me. That's 124, or more than 10 per game, more than the next player and 270 points more (over 20 per game!) than the second place team.
In any event, I plow on, knowing that I am doomed. The question for this week is do I play Tony Romo against the dreadful Giants or do I play Tom Brady against the even more dreadful Lions?
Despite scoring 160 points last week, I lost to Joe Schick. He scored 176 points. Once again, I would have beaten every other player in the league.
My luck this year is beyond bad. In fact, if my buddy Ben Chorin is reading this I would ask him to explain how statistically improbable it is that I am tied for last place, with a 4 - 8 record despite:
* Having the second highest aggregate point total (1695; 107 points higher than the second place player (who is 8 - 4). I have 185 points more than the other team that shares my lousy record.
* My average score, about 141, would have won 22 of the 36 games played so far (61%). Instead, I have won only 33% of my games.
The reason for my lousy record is that, incredibly, teams have scored an aggregate of 1755 points against me. That's 124, or more than 10 per game, more than the next player and 270 points more (over 20 per game!) than the second place team.
In any event, I plow on, knowing that I am doomed. The question for this week is do I play Tony Romo against the dreadful Giants or do I play Tom Brady against the even more dreadful Lions?
Labels: Fantasy Football
posted by MoChassid @ 2:08 PM
5 Comments:
At 4:17 PM,
MoChassid said…
I'm not as dumb as I look
At 4:34 PM,
Ezzie said…
Heh. If it makes you feel better, my brother-in-law and I have a team that has the 3rd-worst record (of 12) in our league, despite being 5th in points. We're 5-7 despite the fact that we should be well over .500 based on the breakdown of points each week.
One guy has a breakdown of 36-94-2... but he's 6-6. Argh.
At 9:24 PM,
Joe Schick said…
I'd play Brady this week. The Lions are bad, and Belichick likes to run up the score.
You need to pick up a safety to fill your empty roster slot and perhaps also a DE.
If you win this week, you will be completely out of last place, and a game behind Elster, who will lose to Akiva.
At 7:34 AM,
Joe Schick said…
A closer look at the numbers reveals that MoC, while certainly victimized by bad luck, is not quite as unlucky as he believes.
In six of his eight losses, MoC has scored 133 points or less. (His other two losses were to me.)
In his four wins, MoC has tended to amass a huge number of points.
At 10:17 AM,
Joe Schick said…
The system is not playing games with you - sometimes you don't get every player you try to acquire via waivers!
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